Gonzaga this, Arizona that, Auburn whatever, let’s talk about the bubble! There’s a small chance that any of these teams we’re about to discuss will make serious noise in the tournament, and virtually a zero percent chance they win the national title, but who cares? The concept of “dancing in March,” that 68 teams enter the tournament with hope, that every coach can tell their team “one win at a time,” is my favorite part of this sport. We’ll have our time to talk about the big boys when the time comes, but for this blog I want to round out the field as of right now and cover the teams that are right on the cusp. Do any of these teams have a 2011 VCU run in them? That’s the beauty of this tournament, we have no idea. Today I’m going to run through my last four byes, last four in, first four out, and next for out. Am I going to be a giant sniveling homer about The Kansas State University Wildcats’ Men’s Basketball Team Coached By Bruce Weber? I’ll try not to, but no promises.
Last 4 Byes:
TCU: The safest team I’ll be discussing today, a two game losing streak to Texas Tech and Iowa State has put them in a little bit of peril, but their slide would need to get notably worse to for them to get out of the field. Their computer numbers aren’t as strong as some other teams on the bubble, but they have a good record, a respectable amount of Quad 1 wins, and no glaring losses. Frogs will be dancing barring a major meltdown
Michigan: They got off to a dreadful start given their preseason expectations, but with a win over Iowa two nights ago and a blowout win over Purdue to their name, Michigan has put themselves back in position for the tournament. Their computer numbers are solid, and while a Quad 3 loss stains their resume, beating Purdue by 24 is the more important than anything else.
Creighton: They haven’t beat particularly good teams lately, but the Jays are on a 4 game win streak, and if you extend it to their last 6 games they’ve won 5 of them including beating a ranked UCONN team. Their computer numbers aren’t great, but I think the win over UCONN and the 20 point win over Villanova are enough to put them here.
Iowa State: As much as they’ve struggled in conference play, the Cyclones’ 8 Quad 1 wins are enough to get them in the field and out of the First Four. A narrow win over TCU ended a four game skid that was putting them in severe danger of missing the tournament altogether despite a 13-0 start. But the wins they have on their resume speak for themselves, and Iowa State has earned a spot in the field.
Last 4 In:
San Francisco: The Dons would be in the field more comfortably if not for an awful Quad 4 loss against Portland. Their computer numbers are enough to get them in the field, but their resume doesn’t exactly scream “surefire tournament team.” Still, the Dons will not be a fun team to play in Dayton.
SMU: Their loss to Temple hurts, but they have a win over Houston in their back pocket, a good record and solid computer numbers. They play Memphis Sunday at 3:00, which is essentially a loser-leaves-town game. If the Mustangs pick up that win, they could move out of Dayton and straight into the Round of 64.
BYU: A four game losing streak in late January-early February has put the Cougars’ fate on the edge of a knife. They play Saint Mary’s tonight, a win would help tremendously while a loss would push them out. If they lose, they only have two more games left against bad teams, they’d need to make serious noise in the conference tournament to crack the field of 68.
Rutgers: It feels only right to give Rutgers the very last spot in the field. They’ve officially passed Alabama for the wonkiest resume in the sport. Only 4 teams in the country have at least 3 losses on Quads 3 and 4 and also have at least 3 Quad 1 wins. Rutgers is one of them… and it’s with SIX Quad 1 wins. They have 4 straight wins over ranked teams, and also losses to DePaul, Lafayette and UMASS. There’s a lot of meat on the bone left; Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana still on the schedule, so they’ll either solidify a spot or fall out. But as of right now, they just barely squeak in.
First 4 Out:
Memphis: Again, a win over SMU on Sunday would push the Tigers into the field. Similar to Michigan and Rutgers, Memphis started terribly and have some BAD losses on their resume. But here they now stand on a six game win streak that includes a win over Houston. A loss to SMU could derail them, but if they come back and finish a sweep of Houston they could still find their way in the field depending on how things shake out.
Kansas State: I’m going to try to stay level-headed here. The Cats started 0-4 in conference play when the team was completely ravaged by Covid, which I believe has to be at least somewhat factored in. The pair of wins over Texas Tech and Texas is something few bubble teams can match, but the losses to Ole Miss, West Virginia, and Oklahoma hurt. If they sweep the toss up games on the schedule (Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Oklahoma) they should be in the field, and if they add in a win at Kansas or at Texas Tech then the Wildcats are in comfortably
Oregon: I was prepared to say the Ducks had played their way back into the field; then they lost two of their last three games to bad teams. Now, they have three ranked teams left on the schedule, so they have the opportunity to either play their way back on or be left definitively out of the field.
San Diego State: A four game win streak that includes avenging a prior loss to Utah State puts the Aztecs in decent position to crack the field. With Boise State and Wyoming still on the schedule, there’s still opportunities for this team to earn a spot out of the most loaded Mountain West we’ve seen in some time.
Next 4 Out:
North Carolina: I know most bracketologists have the Heels barely in, but here’s a principle of mine: if you’re 0-7 in Quad 1 AND have a Quad 3 loss you cannot be in the field, no matter what the rest of your resume looks like. Not only have they lost to all the good teams on their resume, they’ve been non-competitive in nearly all of them. Beat Duke in Cameron, and we’ll talk. Until then, no way.
Oklahoma: At 2-9 in their last 11 games, the Sooners have played their way out of the field for me. I know one of the wins was against Texas Tech, but that many losses in that stretch including a home loss to Oklahoma State is not the work of a tournament team. Go to Lubbock and complete the sweep and they’ll help their case, but for now I think it’s a long shot. The missed buzzer beater in Allen Fieldhouse could loom large for Sooner fans on Selection Sunday.
Dayton: Things could not have started worse for the Flyers, who lost to UMASS-Lowell (who?), Lipscomb and Austin Peay. They then beat Miami, a tournament team, and then won in Allen Fieldhouse, which is no easy task for any team. They also throw in wins over Belmont, Virginia Tech, and a split with a solid VCU team. The three awful losses at the beginning could end up being too much to overcome, but if they win out and beat Davidson the Flyers could be on the cusp of cracking the field in March.
Florida: My final spot here came down to Florida, Virginia Tech and Belmont, and I gave the Gators the nod because they have the best win of the group, against Ohio State. The flip side would be that they also have the worst loss, against Texas Southern, but hey, we’re splitting hairs between teams that are all pretty major long shots. Florida also has the most opportunity to play their way in of those three teams; with Auburn, Arkansas and Kentucky still on the schedule, as well as a loaded SEC tournament.