Boy has this season flown by. It feels like just yesterday we were getting amped up for Georgia vs Clemson, LSU vs UCLA, Alabama vs Miami, and of course, K-State vs Stanford. And now here we are, one weekend to decide the winners of each conference, one weekend to finalize the playoff picture. Oh, and one weekend for two 4-7 teams to play a meaningless game against each other at the end of the night. Thanks, Cal and USC! Since there’s only a handful of games, I’m going to make my picks for every game between Friday and Saturday, and throw together a fun little parlay. I’d simply love to improve on my overall record of 81-58-5.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky vs UTSA
Pick: UTSA +2.5
While the dream of an undefeated season ended for UTSA last week, I think they’ll be fired up to finish out this magical year for Jeff Traylor and the Roadrunners. I trust Sincere McCormick to run the ball all over a WKU defense that leaves something to be desired and keep the ball out of Bailey Zappe’s hands. UTSA heads into their bowl game 12-1.
PAC 12: Oregon vs Utah
Pick: Under 59.5
While Utah demolished Oregon at home a few weeks ago, it’s hard to beat a team twice and now they’re on a neutral field. I’d lean Utah to win again, but instead I’m rolling with the same pick I made last time they played: the under. The two defenses will tell the tale of this game and it’ll be played in the twenties.
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs Baylor
Pick: Over 46.5
First of all, let’s all throw our heads back and laugh at the fact that neither Oklahoma or Texas are in this game, Texas won’t even make a bowl, and now Oklahoma is losing their entire staff and high level recruits.
Okay, now that that’s out of the way, for the pick. I know we’ve grown past the age where Big 12 games all had totals in the seventies, but this number is still too low. The Bears held out Gerry Bohannen last week, but all signs point to that being a precaution and making sure he’s ready for this game. I don’t have strong reasons for this over because it’s two good defenses, I just think enough plays happen and we edge over the number.
MAC: Kent State vs Northern Illinois
Pick: Over 74.5
This play is simple: it’s a MAC game which is a rematch of a game that was 52-47. Points galore, no defense being played, just classic MAC fun.
Mountain West: San Diego State vs Utah State
Pick: Under 50
I think San Diego State wins, but 6 points is too many to lay for a team whose strength is their defense. Instead I’ll take the under, the Aztecs will choke out the Aggies’ offense, play the field position game with the best punter in football, and win something along the lines of 23-17.
Sun Belt: App State vs Louisiana
Pick: Louisiana +2.5
This is a tough one to bet given that Billy Napier has been announced to Florida. He has confirmed that he will coach in this game, while the bowl game is TBD (I’d imagine not). If this is his last ride with the Ragin’ Cajuns, I think he’s the type of guy that wants to go out a winner with a team full of senior and super-seniors that have been with him the whole way. Louisiana wins a tight one.
SEC: Georgia vs Alabama
Pick: Georgia -6.5
Dawgs Dawgs Dawgs, hammer the Dawgs. The case for Alabama is that Georgia knows they’re in the playoff regardless, while Bama needs to win to get in. To that I say, Kirby Smart has heard the noise that he can’t beat Nick Saban, he knows this is the best team he’s had at Georgia, and knows where Alabama is vulnerable. Every time people try to talk themselves into Georgia finally showing vulnerability, they show up and choke the life out of whoever they’ve played. The Auburn front seven manhandled the Alabama offensive line last week, how the hell are they going to handle Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt and Nakobe Dean and Nolan Smith and on and on through this Georgia defense that’s loaded with absolute freakazoids. Kirby gets over the hump, goes into the playoffs as huge, huge favorites, and Alabama watches it from home.
AAC: Cincinnati vs Houston
Pick: Cincinnati -10.5
The people that have tried to knock Cincy have pointed to their struggles against Tulsa, Navy, Tulane, and such. My counter is point to their big games against Notre Dame, SMU, and I suppose you can throw in UCF just from a name standpoint. They covered this number against all those teams. This is a team that gets up for the big ones, the playoffs in within their sights, they’re going to choke out the Houston offense and roll into the selection off a comfortable win.
ACC: Wake Forest vs Pitt
Pick: Over 72
This is a “wouldn’t it be fun” pick. Two awesome quarterbacks, one bad defense and one “meh” defense. I think Wake needs the win more for their program, but the total feels like the safer pick because these offenses are going to score points.
Big Ten: Michigan vs Iowa
Pick: Iowa +10.5
This is too many points to give the Iowa defense against a non-explosive Michigan offense. I have little doubt that Michigan will win, but Iowa’s defense will muck up the game, maybe force a couple turnovers to give their offense a short field, and keep this game within ten points. Especially when you factor in that this is a letdown spot for Michigan, coming off their biggest win of the Harbaugh era.
USC @ Cal
College football is the best. The biggest weekend of the year, so many highly ranked teams squaring off, and then we just have a random game between two teams that won’t make a bowl, one of which has an interim coach. I’m taking USC +4, with the announcement of Lincoln Riley to USC I think Jaxson Dart is going to show out to say “you don’t need to bring Caleb Williams, I’m your guy.” Not sure it’ll work, but that would be my mentality in his position.