I don’t mean to tell anyone I can do their job better than they can, but I think some of the people that have a vote for the AP poll (and the Heisman, but that’s a discussion for another day) frankly have no business having one. And that’s not a knock on the people, but beat writers don’t cover the sport nationally, so why do they vote on a national poll. A Tennessee beat writer isn’t watching Oregon vs Cal, he’s busy writing his story on the Vol game from earlier in the day. And that’s just one example. Beat writers are important for the schools they cover, but asking them to have enough knowledge of the national landscape of the sport is unfair to them, and to us.
So with that being considered, I do think I (and many, many other fans who live and breathe the sport), can put together a sufficiently acceptable ballot, week in and week out. Maybe I’ll write a blog for one every week, maybe I’ll just tweet the rankings, but either way I’m ranking these teams. Here’s where they stand going into the year.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
My top 3 won’t have any hot takes, starting with the fighting Nick Sabans. Is it boring to have Alabama number 1? Maybe, but it’s the right pick. Bryce Young and Will Anderson are back, they reloaded their receiving corps from the transfer portal, Dallas Turner has massive potential to be an elite pass rusher opposite of Anderson. Everything Saban does at this point is icing on the cake, and another national title is easily conceivable. IF they have a weakness, it’s replacing Evan Neal at left tackle.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
This offense has 2019 LSU, 2020 Alabama potential. CJ Stroud isn’t a young guy figuring it out anymore, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country throwing to the best receiver room in the country, handing it off to a top 3 runningback, playing behind an elite offensive line. They don’t need Jim Knowles to be a miracle worker, if he elevates the defense to a top 15-20 unit, the offense can take it from there and will be good enough to beat anyone, including Alabama. But again, that’s an '“if.”
3. Georgia Bulldogs
After losing a ton to the NFL, the defending champs are still a contender to win it all thanks to how well Kirby Smart has recruited. A step back for the defense will be inevitable, but it should still be one of the top units in football with the returns of Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Keelee Ringo, and more. They have the best tight end room we’ve seen in a long time, which compliments Stetson Bennett’s strengths. They may not win it all again, but Georgia isn’t going away anytime soon.
4. Utah Utes
My first semi-hot take, Utah has been a trendy dark horse playoff team, and I am all aboard. Everything clicked for this team when they turned to Cam Rising at quarterback, and he will have loads of talent on offense coming back at his disposal. The defense has to replace Devin Lloyd among others, but Kyle Whittingham has proven time and time again that he can figure it out on that side of the ball. We know Whittingham can win a lot of games, but can he get over the hump and crack the top 4 at the end of the year? If he can, this is the year.
5. Clemson Tigers
You know you’ve built a great program when your “down year” is going 10-3 with losses to the national champion, the ACC champion, and a double overtime road loss to a very good NC State team. That being said, they do need to take a major step forward on offense if they want to live up to this ranking. They now have five star Cade Klubnik pushing DJ Uiagalelei for the starting job, which can only be a good thing. But defense is what will make this team, they may have the most talented unit in the land, the question is whether the departure of Brent Venables will hinder them.
6. Oklahoma Sooners
Despite losing defensive talent to the NFL, you have to expect Brent Venables to get the defensive performance up to snuff, even if it doesn’t get to the level of his elite Clemson units. As for the offense, Dillon Gabriel and Jeff Lebby produced great results the last time they worked together, there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again, especially with the services of Marvin Mims. In a year of transition all over the Big 12, it’s quite possible we see a familiar face standing at the end.
7. BYU Cougars
No team in these rankings returns as much from a year ago as BYU, and it’s coming from a very good 2021 team too. Jaren Hall wasn’t asked to do a whole lot in his first year as a starter, I expect him to get a longer leash this year. Losing Tyler Algeier hurts, but this team has dudes all over the field, and a schedule that will show us just how good they really are.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Perhaps no team went through a smoother coaching transition than the Irish, as they move seamlessly into the Marcus Freeman era with a loaded defense and one of the best tight ends in the country. Quarterback remains a question mark, and a road trip to Ohio State in Week 1 means a likely 0-1 start, but Notre Dame will still be in the mix despite Brian Kelly’s departure.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
The defense is loaded, the offense has talent all over, but the quarterback position remains a question mark, as it seemingly has for several years now. LSU transfer Max Johnson appears the front runner, but we can’t forget that Haynes King had the job a year ago before getting hurt, and five star freshman Connor Weigman could end up taking the job sooner than expected. With their historic recruiting class I’d expect next year to be their breakthough, but you can’t rule out them getting there ahead of schedule.
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Sam Hartman and AT Perry were nightmares for opposing ACC defenses a year ago, while the Wake Forest defense probably made for a few nightmares for head coach Dave Clawson. If the defense improves just to slightly-above-average, they’ll be in the mix to win the ACC. If not, they’re a nine-ish win team that will be fun to watch. Time will tell.
11. Michigan Wolverines
This is the range where Harbaugh teams have traditionally ended the season in his Michigan tenure, and with the amount they lose off their defense from a year ago this is about where they should expect to end up. They have the talent on offense to pick up the slack, the question is do they have the quarterback. A ten win team that loses to Ohio State is not unfamiliar for Michigan, and is my outlook for them once again.
12. NC State Wolfpack
Headlined by quarterback Devin Leary, NC State returns a ton off of a team that won 9 games a year ago. The pieces are there, can Dave Dorean get over the hump to elevate to another level? History would say otherwise, considering they haven’t won ten games in a season during his tenure. That has to be factored in, because based on roster alone this team would be comfortably in the top 10. Dorean has to prove he can field a great team, and not just a very good team.
13. Michigan State Spartans
Kenneth Walker III gets loads of credit for Michigan State’s surprisingly good offense, which he deserves. But no one gives Payton Thorne his due, and he still has thousand yard receiver Jayden Reed to throw to. They won 11 games despite having a wretched defense, with Mel Tucker’s background they have to improve at least some, and that should keep them in the mix in the Big Ten even though they won’t be on Ohio State’s level.
14. Kansas State Wildcats
Yeah, so what? I’m ranking K-State higher than any national media guy will. The way I see it, I’m just ahead of the curve. A defensive line with first rounder Felix Anudike-Uzomah and returns Khalid Duke from injury, a linebacker unit with Daniel Green making huge hits, a retooled secondary with the best pair of corners in the Big 12. A first round left tackle leading an experienced offensive line, returning all the top receivers, and the best runningback in college football coming out of the backfield. The only thing keeping them out of the top 10? A question mark at quarterback, with Adrian Martinez coming from Nebraska. If his untimely turnovers carry over to his new home, it could be a disappointing season. But if having a better offensive line, better skill position players, and a better coaching staff helps him out (crazy concept, right?) and he turns it around, this is a real dark horse playoff contender.
15. Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda is getting a ton of credit that he hasn’t necessarily earned, with people thinking this team will overcome huge losses and be at the top of the Big 12 again. And yet, it doesn’t feel like a stretch. The staff obviously felt confident in Blake Shapen, otherwise they wouldn’t have named him the starter when they did. They lose important skill position players, but a very good offensive line can help keep the offense steady. And we know Aranda will have himself a good defense, despite losing Big 12 DPOY Jalen Pitre, among others. It may not be flashy, but the Bears aren’t going away as long as Aranda is at the helm.
16. Oregon Ducks
Dan Lanning starts his head coaching tenure with a lot of advantages: an experienced quarterback who improve each year as a starter with a five star pushing him, a defense loaded with athletes led by Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe, and having easily the most talented roster in their division (yes I know the PAC 12 ditched divisions, but they still use them for scheduling, get off my back). A non conference schedule that includes Georgia and BYU, in addition to drawing Utah from the other division will be tough, but Oregon still has a good shot at 9 wins at least.
17. Houston Cougars
While Cincinnati should still be a good team, there’s no doubt they take a significant step back with everything they lost, and Houston is the top contender to be the best Group of Five team this year. Perhaps the quietest 12 win team in recent history, they capped off the year with a win over Auburn, and return Clayton Tune who can end up as a top 10 quarterback. They don’t have playoff contender potential, but will be a very good team in 2022.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols return a ton from a team that had a surprisingly good 2021, but will need to take a step forward on defense if they want to live up to this ranking. Hendon Hooker found surprising success in the Josh Heupel offense, and can thrive even more now that he enters the season as the entrenched starter. It may not feel like ‘98 yet, but Tennessee is back from the depths of Jermery Pruitt-induced despair, despite a lukewarm initial response to the Heupel hire.
19. Mississippi State Bulldogs
The team with the highest returning production in the SEC, the Bulldogs were a couple beats away from ten wins in 2021, and with a seemingly wide open SEC West under Alabama, Mississippi State is a good bet to come through with a better record than many expect. A home game against Georgia is an unfortunate draw from the East division, but is also one to circle if you’re looking for potential landscape-changing upsets.
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Jim Knowles is a big loss, but replacing him with Derek Mason is a good way to limit damages on the defense, although they did lose plenty of talent. But their offense remains intact, and even with a very boom-or-bust quarterback, the Pokes should be in the mix at the top of the Big 12.
21. Minnesota Golden Gophers
A lot of their ranking depends on Mo Ibrahim having made a full recovery from his Week 1 injury a year ago. Having Kirk Ciarrocca back with Tanner Morgan is the best thing for the experienced quarterback and for the offense to be the best in the Big Ten West (not that that’s saying a whole lot). PJ Fleck caught some strays from a former player, but if he has a great season here that will be long forgotten.
22. Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal is crushing it on the recruiting trail, but the knock on him has always been his in game decision making, particularly on offense. So he went and snagged the 2021 Broyles Award winner in OC Josh Gattis, who should be able to get the best out of talented quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Miami has the upside to finish much higher in the rankings, but I need to see it come together first.
23. Fresno State Bulldogs
Jake Haener Hive stand up! His decision to stay at Fresno when his head coach left for Washington (Haener’s original school), but he returns with aspirations to win the Mountain West. He played the game of his life in a thrilling victory over UCLA, and came very close to knocking off Oregon in Week 1. I know this whole segment has been about one player, but he’s also really good in addition to being fun to watch. Fresno State will be one of the top teams in the Group of Five.
24. Texas Longhorns
I didn’t want to rank them, I really didn’t. But with the talent level they have on offense, it’s hard to imagine them not taking a big step forward. The defense should improve with transfer portal additions. They’ll get killed by Alabama, but they’ll be in the mix in the Big 12 and are talented enough to beat anyone in the conference. I don’t trust them enough to rank any higher, but I acknowledge they have the potential to end the season in the top 10.
25. South Carolina Gamecocks
Spencer Rattler stock is lower than it should be after the way his Oklahoma career ended, he was very good in 2020 and no one seems to remember it. Now he comes to a job with less pressure, less spotlight, as a more mature player than he was before. And his favorite target in Austin Stogner is coming along with him. Carolina has a lot of momentum after a strong finish in 2021, they have three-quarters of an easy non conference schedule, and they should be in the mix in the SEC East.
Honorable Mentions: Why didn’t I rank them? (no particular order)
USC: It’s a year too early. Too many holes on defense and an offensive line that’s far worse than Riley’s units at Oklahoma
Ole Miss: Too much turnover and pieces that I need to see fit together before I rank them
Coastal Carolina: I really wanted to, just didn’t have enough room. Lost key skill position guys
Penn State: Sean Clifford
Iowa: Spencer Petras and playcalling that belongs in 1973
Wisconsin: Graham Mertz and a total overhaul on defense
LSU: I think long-term Brian Kelly was the best hire of the offseason, but he has work to do. Look for them to break through in 2023
Florida and Florida State: Bad vibes around the programs
Nebraska: Because the suck
Arkansas: Losing Treylon Burks will hurt more than most realize, KJ Jefferson is not a guy that can overcome losing his security blanket
Kentucky: Did you people watch Will Levis or did you just read the mock drafts?