The Pros and Cons of Keeping Matt Ryan as Opposed to Drafting a First Round Quarterback
Because it can make this team fun and football is supposed to be fun
The Falcons enter the 2022 offseason at a crossroads at the quarterback position, with future Hall of Famer Matt Ryan in the twilight of his career. The Falcons went 7-10, although some of the advanced numbers such as DVOA (30th in the league) indicate they were a worse team than their record, and when you look at the teams they beat, the margins they beat them by, and how the games they played against good teams went, it’s not hard to believe. The team is still a little ways from competing, particularly with the threat of star receiver Calvin Ridley potentially not returning to the team. The offensive line has holes (Ryan took more hits in 2021 than any quarterback in the league), the defense leaves much to be desired, and if Ridley does in fact walk, the receiving corps outside of Kyle Pitts are in the league’s bottom tier. Obviously there’s a lot that can be done: trades, free agency, the draft. A lot can be done to help the roster situation, but as quarterback is the most important position on the field, let’s focus on that.
Any conversation about returning Matt Ryan has to start with the salary cap. The bad first: Matt Ryan’s projected cap hit in 2022 is 48 million dollars and change. And with a 40 million dollar dead cap hit, merely cutting him is not an option. Just getting that out of the way now. However, paying him the full salary would truly hamper the team’s ability to be competitive in free agency, even if the team finds a trade partner for Deion Jones (20 million in 2022) and does have to move on from Calvin Ridley (11 million in 2022). The best option is for the front office to work with Matt, find a way to restructure the deal to save money in 2022 similar to what the Steelers did with Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers managed to save a shade over 15 million dollars in the immediate cap hit and spreading out the remaining payouts, giving them much, much more flexibility in free agency. Say the team is able to do this, and trade Deion Jones, the Falcons can then resign fan favorites Cordarrelle Patterson and Foye Oluokun, work on retooling the offensive line, sign a free agent receiver like Chris Godwin or Mike Williams. Not saying all these things can or will happen, but reworking the contract gives the front office the ability to make actual moves, instead of being resigned to cheap, short term deals like last offseason.
Now that we’ve established the Falcons have the ability to bring back Matt Ryan and still have some free agency flexibility, here’s why that’s a better option in my opinion than turning it over to a first round quarterback right now. Because, with the restructured deal and the right moves around the rest of the roster, the Falcons can be, dare I say, pretty good in 2022. The idea that Matt was on Big Ben’s level of “washed up” this year is silly, he completed passes down the field, took off on some runs when they opened up, and allowed Kyle Pitts to become just the second rookie tight end ever to eclipse 1,000 yards. There were weeks where Tajae Sharpe was the best true wide out on the field. And Matt, save for a couple games, was still productive despite get hit more than anyone else in the league. So no, I don’t want to end his career now and give this roster to Kenny Pickett or Matt Corral while eating a 40 million dollar dead cap hit. That’s what dysfunctional franchises do, and despite the struggles of late, I don’t view the Falcons as a dysfunctional franchise.
If the Falcons’ front office does in fact share my viewpoint, they need to actually hit on their moves both in free agency and the draft. If they free up big money through restructuring Matt’s contract and trading both Deion Jones and Calvin Ridley (I only want one of those two to happen but I’m bracing for the worst on the Ridley situation), the big ticket signing would be Brandon Scherff, 30 year old offensive guard for Washington. He makes 18 million currently, but his projected market value per Spotrac is a little under 13 million. He would fill in for Jalen Mayfield and be a gigantic improvement. If they need to go a little cheaper, Trenton Brown, Eric Fisher, Laken Tomlinson, Mark Glowninski, Germain Ifedi are free agents that could be signed to less expensive, shorter term deals and replace Mayfield or Kaleb McGary. Say they do that and use a second rounder on Tyler Linderbaum from Iowa, you’ve got a similar offensive line retooling to what the Chiefs did this past offseason: the same Chiefs that have the second best Super Bowl odds in the league right now. Say Ridley does in fact get traded and the team has a little more money to spend, Mike Williams, Cedric Wilson, and Will Fuller are some names I’d keep my eye on as a replacement. I’m far from a cap-ologist, and I’m not going to pretend all of these are feasible, but they’re names that leaped out to me as guys that would be help the Falcons compete in 2022 combined with nailing the 3 draft picks in the first 2 rounds.
I’m not going to delude myself into thinking that my ideal offseason (Matt restructured, trade Jones, FA offensive line, draft studs on defense) will automatically make this a playoff team next year. There’s still a ways to go, they have a tougher schedule next year, the Saints and Panthers should both be improved with better quarterbacks, etc. But for the love of god, spend some money, make an attempt at being better next year, and send Matt Ryan off with a team and a season that we can actually be proud of. It’s what he deserves after everything he’s done for the franchise. Miss me with your mock drafts that have Pickett or Corral at the 8th pick. You want to spend a 4th rounder on Bailey Zappe, I can get with that, because the backup quarterback room is very bad as evidenced by the Patriots game. But don’t tell me that with the right moves Matt Ryan can’t be the quarterback of a good Falcons team in 2022.