In the caption of my Week 9 picks blog, I vowed to go at least 11-4. And by the skin of my teeth, I messed around and went 11-4, an absolutely surreal performance that brings me to 68-42-2 on the season. If I didn’t make stupid NFL bets that always lose I would be ROLLING in money right now. My wins last week were Nevada, Indiana, Michigan State, Utah State, Minnesota, K-State, UTEP, Mississippi State Kentucky over, Oklahoma State, Auburn, Notre Dame. Losers were Southern Miss (abandoning my principles bites me again), Wyoming ML, ND UNC under, and Virginia ML. Coming off a great week, the pressure goes up a notch. Time to lock in and give the people winners.
Army @ Air Force under 37
Army has sneakily been in some shootouts this year, but I’m pushing that aside and going with the most reliable principle in college football gambling: Service. Academy. Unders. Since 2005 they are 39-9-1. That’s unbelievable, you absolutely can’t bet anything else.
Kansas State -24 @ Kansas
A heart-over-head pick, but can anyone look me in the eye and say this isn’t a good play? K-State’s defense has its swagger back, Skylar Thompson has been playing some of the best ball of his career, and the Chickens reverted back to usual form last week after their surprise close game against Oklahoma. This one will get UGLY.
Ohio State -15 @ Nebraska
I remember the last time Ohio State went to Lincoln. The stands were packed, the crowd was rocking, there was excitement in the air, and Ohio State won 48-7. And watching the game, it could’ve been 87-7 if the Buckeyes wanted it to be. Nebraska is arguably even worse now, this will not be a game.
Pitt -21 @ Duke
Pitt had a tough loss a week ago, but the vibe around Duke is that they have absolutely quit and there are strong rumors that David Cutcliffe is going to retire at the end of the year. Duke is wretched, they have no pulse, so I will be betting against them every week going forward.
Louisiana Tech @ UAB under 49.5
LA Tech’s offense has gotten progressively worse this season since their great showing against Mississippi State Week 1, and UAB still has a salty defense. I think this game gets played in the low twenties at best.
Wake Forest moneyline +115 @ North Carolina
Little known fact: this game doesn’t count as a conference matchup. Wake and UNC agreed to a home and home non-conference however many years back, so Wake can actually lose this game and it wouldn’t affect their ACC title aspirations one bit. That being said, the narrative has been that Wake is good but won’t get through the 4 game stretch they have to end the season, I think Dave Clawson will use that and get his team fired up for this one. Will they win the rest, I’m not sure. But they’ll get this one.
Miami -10 vs Georgia Tech
We buried Miami, but Manny Diaz has pulled himself off of the hot seat by turning to a youth movement across the defense, at the skill positions, and most importantly at quarterback. Tyler Van Dyke is excellent, he’s the future of the program, and Miami is rolling right now to build hope for the future, they’ll handle GT with ease.
Arizona +12 vs Cal
This is Arizona’s best chance to get a win this season, at home against a not-very-good Cal team. If you’re Jedd Fisch you absolutely cannot start your coaching career 0-12, I think he pulls out all the stops for this one. I don’t know if they win, but I think they do enough to at least keep this close.
Georgia -38 vs Missouri
At this point why would you do anything but bet on the Dawgs? Missouri isn’t scoring on this defense, and Mizzou’s awful defense will be kind to Georgia’s offense which is the weaker part of their team. This will be a disgusting game, I don’t recommend watching, just keep an eye on whatever app you use to track scores and smile when it’s 52-3 early in the fourth quarter.
Cincinnati -22.5 vs Tulsa
The Bearcats know they need to start putting more distance between them and their opponents, where better to start than when College Gameday comes to town and they get the eyes of the nation? Fickell knows what they need to do here, I think they take care of business at home.
Oklahoma State -3 @ West Virginia
West Virginia got a big win last week against Iowa State, I don’t think they have it in them to go back to back. The Cowboys basically had a bye week last week against Kansas, they go into Morgantown and take care of business.
Auburn @ Texas A&M over 50
It feels wrong to bet the over in a Bo Nix road game, but he’s sneakily been good this year (he got saved from Gus Malzahn’s gimmicky offense) and Texas A&M’s offense has been very effective from the Alabama game on. I don’t have strong logic for why this game goes ever, I just get the feeling that it does.
Mississippi State +5 @ Arkansas
Two things that happened very quietly lately: Mississippi State beating the hell out of a very good Kentucky team, and Arkansas losing three games in a row after their “huge” wins against 4-4 Texas and Texas A&M with Zach Calzada version 1.0 got them into the top ten. I think the Bulldogs probably win this one outright, but I’ll take the points here.
Utah State -18.5 @ New Mexico State
It’s the Battle of the Aggies here, Utah State has played a lot of close games, but last week they had their biggest win in a while and NMSU is the worst FBS team they’ll have played so far who conversely hasn’t beaten another FBS team all year. Trusting Utah State to have back to back very good performances.
Coastal Carolina -20 @ Georgia Southern
Coastal all season has been flexing their muscles on the bad teams, of which they’ve played a lot. I know they got exposed to an extent against App State, but they’ll take care of business against a bad Georgia Southern team with an interim coach.
Iowa -12 @ Northwestern
The cheese is really sliding off the cracker for Iowa, what’s the best way to fix that? Play arguably the worst team in your conference that has lost their last two games by a combined score of 74-21. Iowa isn’t the team people wanted them to be, but I don’t think Northwestern can score here at all and Iowa will do just enough and, for the time being, get right. I still think they drop another game though.
Oregon State -10.5 @ Colorado
Oregon State has a sneaky good offense, and although they score a little against Oregon, I just don’t trust Colorado’s wretched offense to keep up.
UTSA -11 @ UTEP
This is a battle of two of the best stories in college football, and I just feel like the Roadrunners have much more staying power. Jeff Traylor has just signed a ten year extension, he’s there to stay, I feel like this is their moment.
Hawaii +7 vs San Diego State
Principle play, Hawaii on the island is a different team.