Week 11 was by far my worst week of the season. I’m not one to make excuses, but I wasn’t locked in, I wasn’t properly prepared, I rushed my research, and a 4-7-1 week was the result. Winners were Wisconsin, Missouri, A&M Ole Miss under, and Kansas. Lost on UNC Pitt over, Penn State, New Mexico State, Miami, UTEP, Stanford, and Nevada. Pushed on LSU. Brings my overall record on the season to 81-58-5, which even Bayou Billy admitted is a phenomenal performance this year. We officially have two weeks left in the regular season, which means it’s time to kick, dig deep, and finish strong. I’m throwing in a little parlay because why not, let’s get wild.
Michigan State @ Ohio State over 68.5
Ohio State’s passing game found its grooved last week against Purdue, and now they get a matchup against Michigan State who has the worst pass defense in the conference. Ohio State will have no trouble getting to 45 points or more, and the Michigan State offense led by Kenneth Walker should be able to contribute points as well.
West Virginia -3 vs Texas
You absolutely positively cannot bet on Texas right now. The program is in free-fall, maybe Sark will get it turned around in time, but this is a lost year for them with players that have checked out and now they go on the road to a hostile atmosphere in Morgantown.
Purdue -11 @ Northwestern
Northwestern is awful.
Boston College -1.5 vs Florida State
Florida State got a huge, emotional last-second win in a rivalry game against Miami last week. Now they go on the road, up north, into the cold to play a Boston College team that has their quarterback back and is gaining momentum after a bad first half of conference play. I don’t think the Noles have two in a row in the tank, Boston College gets a big win here.
Texas State +24.5 @ Coastal Carolina
With Grayson McCall injured, Coastal has no business being favored by this much against ANYBODY.
Washington -6.5 @ Colorado
One thing I noticed during the last several weeks with Jimmy Lake being in the news: not one player came out and defended him. I think they genuinely didn’t like playing for him, and with him out of the way I like them to come out here and handle a bad Colorado team.
Maryland +15 vs Michigan
Classic sandwich game for Michigan, huge win at Penn State then they have Ohio State at home in the biggest chapter of this rivalry in Ann Arbor in quite some time. With a trip to College Park in between, I think Michigan takes it easy and Maryland manages to keep within the number.
SMU @ Cincinnati over 65
The Cincy defense has shown vulnerability against far worse offenses than SMU’s, I think Ridder and Mordecai both play great games and put enough points on the board to go over.
Nebraska +9.5 @ Wisconsin
Even against mighty Ohio State, the Cornhuskers have not lost a game by more than one score, I have no reason to think they will now. This will be a low scoring, defensive slugfest where Nebraska will probably be in a position to win the game but make stupid mistakes to blow it as they have so many times this season.
Arkansas +20.5 @ Alabama
Historically Alabama doesn’t get caught up in letdown spots, but this isn’t a traditional Alabama team. They have Auburn at Jordan-Hare next week, Saban knows they haven’t won there since 2015, he’ll take this game easy and be prepared for the Iron Bowl.
Missouri +8.5 vs Florida
Florida is one loss away from firing Dan Mullen, and it seems like many of the players (specifically on defense) have all but quit. Missouri isn’t very good, but they’re not a full touchdown + worse than this version of the Gators. Frankly I think Missouri wins the game and we wake up Sunday to the news that another high profile job is open, but I’ll play it safe and take the points.
Kansas State PK vs Baylor
I mean, it’s Senior Day for Skylar Thompson, the heart and soul of this team, the man who has put so much into this program, come back from multiple injuries to play for the purple and white. We all saw how Chris Klieman reacted against Southern Illinois when Thompson went down, conversely those of us who were in the stadium heard one of the loudest roars in the history of Bill Snyder Family Stadium when he trotted out for the opening series against Oklahoma. The difference in this team’s complexion in the last two years between when he plays and when he doesn’t has been so stark, I’m nervous for the future of the program without him, but for now I’m going to be in the packed stands yelling my lungs out as Skylar Thompson makes one last ride in Manhattan, Kansas.
Oregon @ Utah under 59
The Utah offense has been better ever since Cam Rising took over, but I still think the best units on the field will be the defenses. Utah won’t allow Anthony Brown to establish a rhythm, and Kayvon Thibodeaux will be the toughest challenge Rising has had to deal with yet. Not sure who wins, but this feels like a game played in the twenties.
Hawaii +2.5 vs Colorado State
Two principles in one: bet Hawaii on the island, and fade Steve Adazio. Stars are aligned.