Well, we had to take a step back at some point. I started off red hot, 18-7-2 through Week 2. Week 3 wasn’t terrible, but we definitely came back to Earth going 7-5 plus a parlay loss, bringing me to 25-12-2 straight up and 0-1 in parlays. My winners were Cincinnati, A&M NMSU under, Minnesota, Iowa Kent State under, Troy, Penn State, and Fresno. Losers were GT Clemson over (yuck), Alabama, Ball State (bigger yuck), Ole Miss Tulane under, and Arizona State. Keep the faith, brothers, for this week will be better. I’m not messing around, I’m guaranteeing an 11-4 week or better. But maybe not, we’ll see. But also I’m promising it! But also don’t be mad if I don’t.
Marshall +7 at App State
This is a huge bounce back spot for Marshall following a disappointing loss to East Carolina. Grant Wells is a very good quarterback, and the way Miami looked against Michigan State leaves a sour taste in my mouth about App State who couldn’t beat the Canes. I’d lean App State to win the game, but a full touchdown is too many points to give up so I’ll take Marshall.
Wake Forest moneyline +170 at Virginia
Just keep sleeping on the Demon Deacons. They’re just a good team, Sam Hartman is a very good quarterback and they’re extremely well coached. Virginia looks shiny because they’ve been putting up a lot of points and yards, but their defense is putrid. Wake Forest wins outright in a shootout.
Texas Tech at Texas over 61
When these teams get together it should be illegal to not bet the over. Last year they scored 119 points combined. After their loss to Arkansas, Texas put in the right quarterback in Casey Thompson. Neither team has a good defense, Texas will run all over Tech with Bijan Robinson and Texas’ five star athletes on defense will continue to have two star performances and this game cruises over the total.
Missouri -1.5 at Boston College
With a backup quarterback, I can’t in conscience take Boston College. I think they’re well coached and have some dudes, but I don’t trust them to be able to move the ball. Missouri was disappointing against Kentucky, but I trust them to walk into Chestnut Hill and win by over a field goal.
Wisconsin -6.5 vs Notre Dame
Confession: I originally was going to take Notre Dame but I changed my mind while I was writing the segment on this game. After losing to Penn State in Week 1, this is a must-win for Wisconsin. Their defense is going to stifle the Notre Dame offense and Notre Dame’s defense has looked leaky at times. Wisconsin fans are rowdy, Notre Dame fans are senior citizens, the Badgers’ faithful takes over Soldier Field and watches their team win 24-13.
UMASS +36 at Coastal Carolina
This game is a degenerate’s special. UMASS has been the worst team in FBS for the past couple years, but they’re sneakily only -kinda- terrible this year. They hung around with Boston College after Phil Jurkovic got hurt, and only lost to Eastern Michigan by 2 touchdowns. There were years where they’d lose those games by a combined over a hundred points. Coastal is good but has yet to really wow me, I think they do just enough and win something like 49-20
Louisville at Florida State over 62.5
Florida State has flat-out quit, and that makes me want to bet on Louisville. But I see Louisville only favored by 2.5, and think that it smells like a trap to take Louisville. So for that reason I’m zagging and taking the over, both defenses are terrible, Louisville’s offense looked much better against UCF last week than it did against Ole Miss in Week 1, I think Louisville wins a high scoring affair.
Texas A&M at Arkansas under 47.5
Arkansas’ offense looked better than they really are when they moved up and down the field against a soft, soft Texas team. They aren’t going to be able to do that against A&M, who has one of the best defenses in the country. With a backup quarterback I don’t trust A&M to score much either, I look at this as a 21-17 game.
Louisiana -13.5 at Georgia Southern
We all gave up on Louisiana after their loss to Texas, but they’re still a good team that is one of three serious contenders to win the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern is by no means a good team at all, the Ragin Cajuns have to earn back some credibility after losing when they had the spotlight and they start here with a blowout win against Georgia Southern.
Kentucky -5.5 at South Carolina
This feels like an overreaction line to Kentucky only beating Chatanooga by 3. Kentucky will still be a good team this year, they have a great offensive line and finally a quarterback who can throw the ball effectively. South Carolina is terrible, having eeked out a win against ECU and getting demolished by Georgia. Kentucky controls the line of scrimmage and wins by 2 scores.
Kansas State +6 at Oklahoma State
This line opened at OSU -9 and immediately got bet way down. I want to bet K-State moneyline but I’m worried about bad Will Howard rearing his head again, so I’m sticking with the spread and trusting the Cats’ defense that has looked awesome through 3 games to at minimum keep the game close. Oklahoma State’s offense has not been impressive at all, they’re going to struggle just to get to 20 points. Score prediction: Cats 24, Cowboys 17.
Ohio State -49 vs Akron
This is a hold-your-nose game. Akron has a solid case to be the worst team in FBS, right up there with UCONN and company. Ohio State hasn’t been impressive yet but Akron is multiple levels worse than any team they’ve played yet this year. Ohio State could have their third stringers (possibly even a guy named Ewers) in in the third quarter and still run up and down the field. This feels like a 63-3 game.
West Virginia +16 at Oklahoma
Until Oklahoma shows up and handles an FBS opponent I will not be betting on them to start. West Virginia is coming off a big win against Virginia Tech, I don’t think they win the game but I trust them to keep it within two touchdowns after watching both Tulane and Nebraska keep it within one touchdown. Oklahoma could show up this week and make this look silly, but I’m not betting on something I haven’t seen yet.
UAB at Tulane over 55.5
Tulane can score some points, they did it against an allegedly-good Oklahoma defense, and against Ole Miss they appeared to have zero interest in playing defense. Meanwhile UAB scored all over North Texas and Jacksonville State, I can’t fault them for getting stifled by Georgia who probably has the best defense in the country. I think this will be a very fun shootout, something in the neighborhood of 35-31
Arizona State -14.5 vs Colorado
This is a fade on Colorado’s offense, in their two games against FBS opponents they’ve scored 7 points. Combined. There’s no reason to think it’s going to get any better on the road against a talented Arizona State team who needs to bounce back after a disappointing loss a week ago. With Colorado’s offensive struggles, there’s no reason to think they can score enough to keep up with Jayden Daniels and the ASU offense in Tempe.