Week 5 Gambling Tips
This week is pivotal, I managed to have my fifth consecutive above .500 week in Week 4, but boy was it by the skin of my teeth at 8-7 plus a parlay loss. Winners were Marshall, Wake Forest on the moneyline, Texas Texas Tech over, A&M Arkansas under, Kentucky, Ohio State, West Virginia, and Arizona State. Lost on Missouri, Wisconsin (yuck), UMASS, Louisville FSU over, Louisiana, K-State (pain), and UAB Tulane over. Total record comes to 33-19-2 and 0-2 on parlays. Still making money for the people, but it’s not coming in as dominant of fashion as it did the first couple weeks. So, here we go, we’re getting back into form this week. I adore the board, I would like to marry the board. I love my parlay, it Can’t Lose. I’m not sure using Big Cat’s cliches are good luck or terrible luck, but regardless, let’s roll.
Arkansas @ Georgia under 48.5
Georgia’s defense is incredible, maybe the best defense we’ve seen in years. With a banged up KJ Jefferson and Treylon Burks, I struggle to see Arkansas score more than 13 points. Arkansas’ defense should also be able to slow down the Georgia offense, plus Georgia will pack it in if they have a sizeable lead, which is why I like the under more than laying all those points with the Dawgs.
Minnesota +2.5 @ Purdue
No better time to bet on a team than when they’re coming off the most embarrassing loss of the college football season so far. Minnesota had a disgusting performance against an awful Bowling Green team, how better to bounce back than to beat a division foe and avoid starting conference play 0-2?
TCU moneyline +185 vs Texas
This is less of a play on what the teams have shown this year, but rather acknowledging that TCU has owned Texas since joining the Big 12, even in years when TCU wasn’t very good. Texas had a big win against Texas Tech, how many times have we seen the horns not be able to string together multiple good performances. Frogs win a tight one at home.
USC -7.5 @ Colorado
Going to continue fading Colorado. Their offense might be the very worst in Power 5 football, they absolutely cannot score. USC is coming off of a dreadful loss at home but I think they’re still the better team and will only need to score around 21 points to cover this spread.
Cincinnati -2 @ Notre Dame
Willing this one into existence. Cincinnati is coming off a bye, while Notre Dame just had a huge win against Wisconsin that, while the final score indicates it was a blowout, it was really a dogfight and a war for most of the game. Cincinnati has already had their first shot against a Power 5 team on the road against Indiana. They looked jittery at first, then ended up handling their business. Desmond Ridder’s talking trash, there’s no more rust, no more jitters, they’re going to beat Notre Dame and prove they’re a playoff contender.
Ohio State -14.5 @ Rutgers
How better to show that people overreacted to a bad start to the season than to demolish a team that kept it close against your biggest rival the week before? With a game off for CJ Stroud to nurse his shoulder injury and basically a bye week against Akron to try to fix the Buckeyes’ defensive issues, this feels like the week that Ohio State shows up and acts like themselves.
Ole Miss @ Alabama under 79.5
This total is inflated from where it should be based on how this matchup went last year. Alabama had a historic offense and a defense that struggled early, Ole Miss had a sneaky offense and a historically bad defense. But that was last year. Alabama’s offense is still awesome, but it’s not as explosive as it was a year ago, and their defense has improved considerably. Meanwhile Ole Miss has improved their defense into a solid unit. There’ll be points scored, but not 80 of them.
Tulane @ ECU over 65
These are two good offenses and two bad defenses within their leagues. The only time they’ve been slowed down are when they played very good defenses. I see this as a game played in the 30s and could end up going over in the third quarter.
Nevada +6.5 at Boise State
Only taking this because Bayou Billy loves it. If it loses direct your complaints to him.
South Florida +21 @ SMU
SMU got a huge win last week, taking down rival TCU and reclaiming the Iron Skillet. Now, they have a big letdown spot against a South Florida team that showed life last week against BYU (in a very similar situation as BYU was coming off back to back Pac 12 wins as an underdog). I think SMU comes out sluggish and doesn’t put the Bulls away and win by 10-14.
Army -7.5 @ Ball State
I’ve had to reset my expectations on Ball State because I thought they’d be good again this year and they simply are not. They are, in fact, a bad football team. Meanwhile, Army might be the quietest 4-0 team in the country. They run the option effectively, and if you aren’t ready for it you’ll get the ball run down your throat with 15 play, 10 minute touchdown drives. Army runs up and down the field and Ball State doesn’t have the horses to keep up, Knights by double digits.
Kentucky +7.5 @ Florida
In the Dan Mullen era at Florida, Kentucky is a team they’ve had more trouble with than most. In 2018 Kentucky beat them, in 2019 the Gators had to come from behind to edge out a victory after Kyle Trask came into the game, and in 2020 Kentucky hung around despite Florida having the way better team. I think the Gators win, but Kentucky with their good defense and rushing attack keeps it close.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State over 47
Both of these teams appeared to get their offenses together last week, with Oklahoma State hanging 31 on a K-State team that had previously shut down Stanford and Nevada, and Baylor outscoring a good Iowa State defense. I don’t have a strong feel for who wins the game, but I think the offenses will score enough to get over this total.
Mississippi State +7 @ Texas A&M
I am not convinced A&M can score more than 20 points against anyone with a pulse. That means I just need Mississippi State to score at least 14? Absolutely, even if A&M wins it’ll be close, just like every Mississippi State game has been. Even if A&M is up 10 with three minutes left, you can’t rule out the Bulldogs to score a late touchdown. Mike Leach football!
Fresno State @ Hawaii over 64.5
Betting the over on a game at Hawaii that kicks off at 10:00 pm Central, and checking your phone drunk at 2:00 am to see if you won is peak degeneracy. Fresno is really good, they took down UCLA and kept it within 7 of Oregon. Hawaii has no designs of playing defense, and Fresno’s strength is also in their offense with Jake Haener. Fresno can easily get over 40 points, and I think I can trust Hawaii to take care of the rest to push this total over.