Cue the Michael Jordan “I’m back.” A huge 10-5 week in Week 5 propelled me to a 42-24-5 overall record. Still haven’t had a below .500 week, if only I didn’t take stupid NFL bets every week I’d be rolling in dough. Last weeks winners were Arkansas Georgia under, Minnesota, USC, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Ole Miss Alabama under, Tulane ECU over, Nevada, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. Lost on TCU moneyline, South Florida, Army, Baylor Oklahoma State over and Hawaii Fresno State over. My followers would be absolutely collecting currency left and right if they actually opened my blogs. Their loss!
Coastal Carolina -20 @ Arkansas State
Arkansas State just got blown out by a team that had just fired their coach. The Butch Jones experiment is going terribly, and Coastal so far is the best team in the Sun Belt. Coastal goes into Arkansas State and runs up and down the field, winning by over three touchdowns.
Texas +3.5 vs Oklahoma
I’d prefer a meteor to hit the stadium at kickoff so neither team wins, but given how unlikely that is I’ll take the points with Texas. Ever since Texas put in Casey Thompson at quarterback they’ve quietly gotten it right, demolishing poor Texas Tech and handling a good TCU team. Oklahoma has so far been unable to hit explosive plays, they went to a dink-and-dunk game plan last week against K-State. I don’t think they’ll get separation and this comes down to a coin-flip.
Ohio State -20.5 vs Maryland
Ohio State is getting right. They clobbered Rutgers in New Jersey a week ago, and I have little reason to think Maryland is much better than Rutgers. The Buckeyes now return home to The Horseshoe to a rockin’ crowed, they’re going to have zero trouble with Maryland, probably scoring 60 points.
West Virginia +3 @ Baylor
This is a what-are-you-made-of game for Neal Brown and West Virginia. Coming off an inexcusable loss to Texas Tech, he has put himself at risk of missing a bowl game for the third straight year and thus being firmly on the hot seat. Baylor has yet to get their offense going, I think West Virginia has more to lose and keeps this game to within a field goal and very possibly wins it.
Georgia @ Auburn under 47 & Georgia -15.5
Georgia unders are gold this year. I really think this could be the best defense we’ve seen since 2011 Alabama (or 2011 LSU for that matter), and their offense still doesn’t have all their talented skill position players back from injury yet. They’ve pitched back to back shutouts in SEC play, I have no reason to think an offense led by Bo Nix will score on them. Georgia wins something in the vicinity of 34-3.
Wisconsin @ Illinois under 42
I mean, come on. Is either team scoring more than 17 points? I really doubt it.
Wake Forest -6 @ Syracuse
I simply demand that everyone in this country gives Wake Forest and Dave Clawson and Sam Hartman. There’s no if, ands, or buts about it, they’re going into the more difficult part of their schedule with North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, and Boston College to end the season. But before that they have Syracuse, Army, and Duke. They could very easily be 8-0 going into that stretch.
Iowa -1.5 vs Penn State
This matchup is interesting because it’s number 3 against number 4 and we have no clue how good either team really is. I’m rolling with Iowa because Kinnick Stadium is one of the best home field atmospheres and advantages in college football, and Iowa’s defense has been a machine at forcing turnovers and Sean Clifford loves throwing interceptions on the road in big games. Iowa wins a low scoring affair.
TCU -2.5 @ Texas Tech
This line is an overreaction to TCU losing to a good Texas team and Tech getting an upset win against West Virginia. Tech is still not very good and TCU can score on most defenses, I think go into Lubbock and cruise here with relative ease.
South Alabama -3.5 @ Texas State
This is my favorite lock of the YEAR so far. South Alabama is probably the very quietest good Group of 5 team in the country this year. The have a defense that’s yet to allow more than 21 points a game, former South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley has been efficient and doesn’t make mistakes, and probably the most unsung good receiver in football in Jalen Tolbert.
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech under 47
Two teams whose defenses are stronger than their offenses. Notre Dame appears to have fully turned to Drew Pyne as their quarterback, who’s young and still figuring it out. Justin Fuente has temporarily cooled his seat through playing tough defense ever since they shut down Sam Howell and the North Carolina offense. This will be a slugfest and a war, take the under.
Alabama -17.5 @ Texas A&M
The hesitancy on this pick that one may have is that A&M might get Haynes King back. My response to that would be: does it matter? We have no evidence that he’s very good, our only data point is a 21-33 for 292 yards with two touchdowns and 3 picks performance against 2-3 Kent State. Even if he ends up being a big improvement over Zach Calzada, I don’t think that a version of him coming off injury against an Alabama defense is going to be super effective. Also, we don’t even know if he’ll play at all! Don’t overthink this, take the Tide.