Apologies for no blog a week ago, I had a very busy week of school (yeah, that). I had to spend more time studying for a marketing analytics test than I had time to study the board. Consider it my gambling bye week, and boy did I need it after Week 7, because it finally happened. For the first time in the 2021 college football season, I had a below .500 week. 7 wins, 8 losses. Terrible, disgusting, awful. I vow to the people to be better going forward (I did hit Auburn moneyline at +170 to be fair). Winners were Cincinnati, Auburn ML, Arizona Colorado under, Texas Tech, Louisiana Monroe, Army, and Nevada. Losers were Clemson Syracuse over, Florida (gross), Missouri, Oklahoma State Texas over, Mississippi State, Tennessee, K-State moneyline (pain), and Washington. Total record on the season comes to 57-38-2 (I mean, that’s still a damn good record). I’m due for a huge bounce back, the numbers don’t lie. Time to climb aboard, people.
Nevada -20.5 vs UNLV
They’re coming off a hard fought loss to Fresno State, but this is still a heavily lopsided matchup with the better team at home. Carson Strong played a whale of a game against Fresno, and UNLV doesn’t have the caliber of athletes to keep up the way that Fresno did. This is a get-right game for the Wolfpack, could get very ugly.
Indiana +5 @ Maryland
Indiana isn’t very good, but their terrible record is in part due to the gauntlet of a schedule they’ve played so far. Jack Tuttle takes care of the ball better than Michael Penix, and Taulia Tagovailoa hasn’t looked the same since the Iowa game. Indiana Hoosiers probably win outright
Michigan State +4.5 vs Michigan
A man has to stick to his principles, and all year I’ve said Michigan was a fraud. Here we come to a head. Go Sparty.
Utah State -5.5 vs Hawaii
New betting strategy when it come to Hawaii games: if it’s on the island, bet Hawaii. If it’s on the mainland, fade Hawaii. Especially at 9:00 AM Hawaii time.
Southern Miss +13.5 @ Middle Tennessee
I don’t like Southern Miss and I enjoy the fact that they’re a bad team, but MTSU has no business being favored by two touchdowns over anybody. This game gets mucked up and Southern Miss stays within the number.
Minnesota -7.5 at Northwestern
Minnesota might be the quietest “control their own destiny” team in the country. They have an absolutely inexplicable non conference loss to Bowling Green that scientists will study for decades, a 14 point loss to a top 5 team, and Iowa and Wisconsin still on the schedule. Northwestern is terrible, Gophers cruise on the road.
Kansas State -3 vs TCU
Look deeper into the K-State Texas Tech game, and the Cats were the better team by considerably more than 1 point. Tech went up 14-0 in the blink of an eye after a 2 play touchdown drive and scoring off a fumbled kickoff return. After that the Cats outscored them 25-10 and the pitched a shutout in the second half. TCU is a mess, this is the worst Gary Patterson team in years. It’s homecoming week in Manhattan, Klieman has owned Patterson so far, Wildcats win by at least a touchdown.
Wyoming moneyline +125 @ San Jose State
UTEP +12 @ FAU
This line is disrespectful. Disgusting. Embarrassing. A slap in the face. Absurd. Ridiculous. Unbelievable. Cruel. Vile. Go Miners. Picks Up.
Mississippi State Kentucky over 47
This line (Kentucky -1) feels like a trap to get people to take Kentucky, thus I want to bet Mississippi State. On the other hand, Mike Leach teams do weird, untrustworthy things. I’m taking the over instead, basically because everything suggests the under, but since the line is wonky I’m assuming the total is wonky too and something weird is going to happen. Not sure if any of this makes sense, but I’m hoping I’m right.
Oklahoma State -30.5 vs Kansas
I hate using this phrase because it’s one that message board fans have beat into the ground, but Kansas “won their super bowl” a week ago. They did so by keeping it close against Oklahoma at home. Now they go on the road to an Oklahoma State team that needs to bounce back and has a better defense than the Sooners. Officially back to fading Kansas.
Auburn -2.5 vs Ole Miss
I didn’t think this was possible, but Auburn is quietly good (they’re going to win the Iron Bowl and everyone else is scared to admit it). My back is absolutely up against the wall in my bet with Bayou Billy on the Ole Miss win total, if I can’t get a win here I’m near concession-territory.
Notre Dame -3.5 vs UNC and under 62.5
#FadeBayouBilly. And I like the under because Notre Dame’s defense is awesome and Carolina’s offense gets credit for being good the last two years but they aren’t that team anymore. Also this will be an unbelievably good color game.
Virginia moneyline +115 @ BYU
Happy Bronco Bowl everybody, a national holiday. BYU has somewhat been exposed after their hot start, and Virginia’s offense is by far the best unit on the field led by Brennan Armstrong who’s sneakily been one of the very best quarterbacks in the nation this year. Go Hoo’s.