With the draft just a day away, I’m writing this blog one third to arrange my own thoughts, one third to catch my girlfriend up to speed, and one third to let all seven of my loyal readers know that I’m still here. This is a very different year than last year, with three quarterbacks going off the board in the first three picks, by draft day we knew with >95% certainty that Kyle Pitts was going to be the guy with the fourth overall pick. And, despite how the past almost-365 days have gone, I still maintain that was the correct pick. But this year? With the pick being at 8, and it being more likely than not that no quarterbacks get taken in the first seven picks, there’s possibilities that need to be sorted out. I’ll try not to overreact to the selection, because we just never know (Falcons Twitter had a borderline meltdown when AJ Terrell was the pick, now he’s arguably the team’s best player). But there’s certainly some options that excite me far more than others. And there’s also a whole lot of value in Day 2, and perhaps even in the later rounds. So, it’s time to dive in and sort through this mess of a draft, and highlight the scenarios that excite me, and the ones that I’d turn my nose up at.
First thing I want to cover: the option of trading back. In a vacuum, I would absolutely love to. If none of the true studs fall to 8, it would be great to grab some more draft capital and fill more positions of need (because Lord knows there’s lots of them). Problem with that is- who the hell is eager to trade up in this class? All the reports are that the teams you THINK might look quarterback (Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, maybe even Washington) aren’t looking to. Because this quarterback class, as everyone knows, is very weak. The only team that might look to is the Saints, and there’s no chance the Falcons trade with a rival (although I haven’t ruled out the conspiracy theory that Terry is a mole sent by the Saints to destroy us from the inside). I just don’t think trading back is very feasible, so if it doesn’t happen I don’t want to see fans mad about it.
Now that that’s out of the way, here’s dream scenarios with the 8th pick. First is the possibility that enough teams pass on Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and he falls to 8. What some talking heads have said are red flags about him, I simply don’t view as red flags. He has interests outside of football like cryptocurrency? So what? People say they want guys who love football, which I agree with, but you can love football without only loving football. In my opinion he’s the best player in the draft at the Falcons’ biggest position of need, a freak athlete with production to match. If he does have a concern it’s injury, but at 8 I say it’s worth it. And on the note of injuries, in today’s college football, if you’re a top 5-10 projected pick, and you get hurt in early in your junior season, and you come back and absolutely wreck games and dominate plays, by god you love football, I don’t care how many cryptos you’re involved in. I’d say it’s a <25% chance he’s there at 8, but if he is I’m metaphorically sprinting to the podium.
Another dream scenario that I’m not banking on happening, but thinking of pairing AJ Terrell with Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside. In today’s passing league, what’s more valuable than having two legitimate shutdown corners? In 2021 Terrell was placed on one side of the field, shutting down that side, but team’s could scheme around that. But what are you going to do when both sides are shut down? Obviously football is more complicated than that, but offensive coordinators would really going to have to get creative to work around those two. Gardner is athletic, long, has great ball skills, and has the frame/speed combo to go up against any of the league’s great receivers. If Gardner was in fact the pick, I’d go so far as to want to use two day 2 picks on the pass rush, to try and make life easier on Gardner and Terrell.
Now that I’ve gotten my hopes up, let’s bring everyone back down to Earth with some more feasible options at 8. One is Jermaine Johnson from Florida State. While he doesn’t have the upside that Thibodeaux has, he’s a very polished and complete player that does a lot of things very well and could play right away. While pass rush is the most important job for an edge rusher, Johnson is the best one in the class at stopping the run, and he still has a number of refined moves in his pass rush arsenal. He has the frame you want, and plays with an unquestionable motor, never taking a play off (which he couldn’t afford to, given how bad the rest of Florida State’s defense was). I’d love to have Jermaine Johnson on this team if Thibodeaux and Gardner are gone.
Johnson is my ideal pick at 8 in the “reasonable” territory, now I have to cover the option that’s gotten the most buzz in the past two weeks: Garrett Wilson, Ohio State wide receiver. This is a complicated one that I don’t find ideal, but I get it. The mindset I’ve seen that I don’t agree with is that taking a pass catcher renders the Kyle Pitts pick a mistake, because he was supposed to be a generational offensive weapon. First of all, no pass catcher can run an offense by himself. Even the ones that are the only elite pass catcher on their team needed an elite quarterback (ie. Davante Adams). The thinking behind the Pitts pick was that he and Calvin Ridley would be among the NFL’s elite one two punches for a decade, and Pitts would have a year to learn alongside Julio Jones, and have a veteran, Hall of Fame quarterback for his formative years in the league. A mere one year later, zero of these things are still the case. If you want to say they should’ve been prepared for Jones and Ryan’s departures, fine, but nobody on the planet could’ve predicted the Ridley saga. Things change fast in the NFL, and competent franchises adjust and take them in stride. Are the Falcons a competent franchise? Questionable, but I’d certainly like to become a surefire one.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk Wilson, as well as a couple other receivers that would be possible at 8. Wilson has a great combo of being electric with the ball in his hands, and have excellent ball skills on contested catches. In college he had the benefit of playing with other elite receivers around him, and Pitts could be that guy for him in the league. If you trust Arthur Smith’s ability to get guys the ball in ways that effectively utilize their skillset (Cordarrelle Patterson’s career resurgence confirms it for me), then it’s easy to fall in love with Wilson. If you wanted a more traditional downfield receiver, you could look to his teammate Chris Olave, who’s the most refined route runner in the draft and has great speed. His weakness is making contested catches, but when he gets separation he’s as good as anyone. In an NFL where size is becoming less and less important for receivers, USC’s Drake London goes against the grain with a massive frame who can go up and make any contested catch you throw his way. His speed is decent for his size but doesn’t blow you away, but he should be fully recovered from his ankle injury. And to round of the consensus top 4 receivers, I’m fully out on Jameson Williams. Not just because he’s coming off an ACL injury, but because he relies so heavily on his speed, he’s not a refined route runner, I have major questions about his effort, and I think he’ll get bullied off the line by NFL corners. Do. Not. Want.
There’s a couple more guys to cover at 8, but I’m dragging here and want to cover some Day 2 options as well as late round sleepers, so I’ll just say I’m okay with taking Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross and lukewarm on taking Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. It won’t happen, but I’d sneakily be very content with taking Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd at 8, his versatility is off the charts. As for day 2, obviously a quarterback is a need, and assuming Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder are gone, North Carolina’s Sam Howell is who piques my interest the most. He had a disappointing season by the standard he set after losing his top receivers and playing behind a bad offensive line. But I love his accuracy, athleticism and mechanics, and I think his shortcomings of varying degrees (progressions, pocket awareness) can be improved with time learning behind Marcus Mariota and not having to start year 1. Matt Corral is another one that interests me, but his frame and the one-read offense he played in at Ole Miss concern me. But I wouldn’t mind a second rounder on him.
Some non-quarterback options I like on Day 2 that I’m just going to rapid fire: Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore and Purdue’s David Bell are two receivers I’d enjoy. Moore is a small shifty receiver that is a menace with the ball in his hands, and Bell is a spectacular route runner who was very productive his entire college career. I don’t think he’ll be there, but if Nakobe Dean is there at 43 I might run to the podium myself, probably the smartest player in the draft with uncanny instincts. UConn defensive tackle Travis Jones would be an excellent partner in the interior for Grady Jarrett. I don’t want to give up on Richie Grant yet, but if Baylor’s Jalen Pitre is the pick he can fit just about anywhere on the defense. I’m not fully on board with giving up on Jalen Mayfield either, but Sean Rhyan from UCLA and Jamaree Salyer from Georgia are two guys that played tackle in college but project as guards in the NFL, and I think either would be an upgrade. And lastly, Roger McCreary from Auburn is a corner that faired extremely well against even the elites of the receivers in the SEC, and his only real knock is arm length. But he does everything well enough to where I’d feel very confident lining him across from AJ Terrell and him being an upgrade over Fabian Moreau, and let Isaiah Oliver play slot corner.
To wrap this up, I’m going to spitball some projected Day 3 picks that I think could end up being diamonds in the rough. This one comes from my friend The Big Ragu, Ty Chandler at running back is a big play waiting to happen. Clemson wide receiver Justyn Ross once looked like a first round talent, but injuries have relegated him to a late rounder that I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on. Max Mitchell for Louisiana is a developmental tackle prospect that I like. I’d say no if his name was Alec Johnson, but pairing Alec Lindstrom with his brother on the offensive line is an idea that I can’t help but consider. Auburn’s Smoke Monday is a safety that I think should be projected way higher than he is, he had a pick 6 of Mac Jones in 2019 and has been productive in the two years since. And, my K-State homer brain can’t help but mention Reggie Stubblefield as a nickel corner and Skylar Thompson as a backup quarterback simply must be mentioned or I wouldn’t be doing my job. The success rate on Day 3 picks is low, but finding one that you can get on a small salary is valuable in this league, and these are ones I think have that potential, not that there aren’t a litany of others as well.