Who Can Actually win the National Title?

Like,,, actually

I find myself toeing a narrow line every year in mid-January and once again in late March. The reason? I’m a huge fan of both college basketball and college football, and those are the points where debate rages about which sport is better, with each side arguing fiercely. Basketball fans bring up football’s lackluster postseason, football fans beat you over the head with their dominant TV ratings during the regular season. I don’t partake in the debate because I love both sports. Football has a better regular season, basketball has a better postseason. I don’t think that’s a hot take.

I say all that to say this: the main argument for basketball over football is that anyone can win the national title because, barring postseason bans, anyone can make the tournament and once there anyone can theoretically win it all. But, let’s get real, we know that’s not actually true. No team seeded lower than 8 has ever won, and only 3 teams seeded 6 or below have ever won. Since 2010, the winning seeds have been 1, 3, 1, 1, 7 (outlier), 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1. If you pick a top seed in your bracket, you have a far better shot at being right than trying to guess who will be the Cinderella. So, in this blog I’m going to go through and circle the teams that I can reasonably see winning the national title. Obviously it’s not impossible for someone else to win, but these are the ones that wouldn’t totally shock me and that I think could win without the bracket descending into total chaos like 2011 or 2014 (sorry UCONN). I’ll also throw in the next tier of teams that are close, but have a fatal flaw that keeps them out of true national title contention in my humble opinion. I’m putting these in alphabetical order, not based on how likely I think they are to win.

True Title Contenders

Arizona Wildcats:

I’ll be saying this a lot in this list, so I’ll get it out of the way now: I know they just lost to Colorado, but they’re still a true contender for me. Tommy Lloyd is the Coach of the Year in my opinion, they have a pair of go-to guys in Ben Mathurin and Azuolas Tubelis, but also have seven guys that average at least 7 points a game. That’s the kind of balance that you see in past champions. My biggest fear is their youth, but Arizona has earned a spot as a top tier contender.

Arkansas Razorbacks:

Few teams in the nation are hotter than Arkansas, and few players are hotter right now than their leading scorer JD Notae. After a tough stretch in December-early January, the Hogs have won 13 of their last 14, including wins over Auburn and Kentucky, and their only loss is by one point to Alabama. Notae has a case to be a First Team All-American, Jaylin Williams is nearly averaging a double double, and as a team they play the type of defense you need to win six straight games in the tournament.

Auburn Tigers:

I trust Auburn for the first 39 minutes of the game against any team in the country. But I get nervous when they’re in the winding seconds, in need of a basket, and it’s KD Johnson or Wendell Green taking the shot as opposed the obvious best player, Jabari Smith. That could bite them, because this team isn’t good enough to have a 2018 Villanova type run where they win every game by double digits. They will be in a tight game down the stretch. If they find a way to get the ball in Jabari’s hands, watch out, Auburn can cut down the nets.

Baylor Bears:

Between James Akinjo, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer, Baylor has a group of guards that can stack up with anyone else in the nation. I’d be worried if they went up against a team like Gonzaga, or Illinois, or Purdue, who have bigs that can overpower them without Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. But their win against Kansas on Saturday eases my doubts about them stacking up with the best teams in the country, the Bears are absolutely a threat to repeat.

Duke Blue Devils:

Stacked with talent, they could have 3-4 first round picks, and haven’t lost a game by more than 5 points all season. They’ve shockingly flown under the radar somewhat simply because of how bad the ACC has been, but the Devils are a real threat. I worry about their guard play, but let’s be serious, Duke is going to get every 50/50 call in Coach K’s last tournament, which can matter in a close game.

Gonzaga Bulldogs:

The number one team in the country by a decent margin in KenPom, the Bulldogs are as balanced as it gets with five guys averaging double figures. Andrew Nembhard is the veteran point guard that every title team needs, Drew Timme is liable to drop 30 on a given night, and Chet Holmgren has gotten better every week and is nearly averaging a double double. There will always be a decent portion of the college basketball-watching population that will never give Gonzaga an ounce of credit until the win the national title, and this may just be the year that happens.

Illinois Fighting Illini:

There’s a hesitancy to trust Illinois because they’ve been fairly inconsistent this year, with losses that make you scratch your head. But they’re the most experienced team out of all the contenders, with their four leading scorers being three seniors and a junior. Kofi Cockburn is the most dominant player in the country (unless he’s going against Zach Eady), if they get the right matchups they can just physically dominate their way to national title.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kentucky Wildcats:

There’s a growing contingent of people that believe Kentucky is the best team in the country when fully healthy, and I see where they’re coming from. The backcourt of TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler is superb, and they’re both getting healthy now. Oscar Tshiebwe is, in my opinion, the National Player of the year. He’s as consistent a player as there is in the country, both in terms of scoring and rebounding. When Kellan Grady is on, there’s no better shooter on a contending team. And unlike some of the most talented Kentucky teams in the past, they have age and experience, rather than being reliant on a bunch of freshman. This is coach Cal’s best team since 2015.

UCLA Bruins:

No, they haven’t really earned this credit, and there’s teams in my next tier that have been more impressive this season. Maybe I’m blinded by their run last year, but I can’t help but get the feeling that this team has been on cruise control, waiting for March, because they know have a team that’s good enough to win it all. Is that wise? Probably not, but they have the experienced backcourt you look for in your title contenders and Final Four experience. Nothing is going to phase this team.

Almost Contenders, but…

Providence Friars:

One of the best stories in college basketball, Providence just clinched its first Big East title in the history of the program. They’re a good team with a great record, but great records alone don’t make national champions. KenPom’s luck algorithm has them as the luckies team in the nation, having won a litany of close games. That’s not to take away from Ed Cooley’s squad, they’ve had a fantastic season and earned their title, but I can’t see a world where they win the national title barring an offensive explosion that we haven’t really seen this year.

Purdue Boilermakers:

On paper their record and resume suggests this team should be a bonafide title contender, and my immediate instinct was to put them as such. But if there’s anything we’ve learned in the KenPom era, it’s that teams that can’t defend will not win the national title. Purdue’s 99.9 adjusted defensive KenPom rating is the worst of any team in the top 40. As good as Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey, Trevion Williams and company are offensively, I can’t put real trust in them with the defense they play.

Tennessee Volunteers:

A big win over Auburn puts the Vols in position to potentially be a three seed, which exceeds my preseason expectations by a decent margin. They play excellent defense, with the second best adjusted defensive rating of the top 20 KenPom teams. My reason for hesitation? I don’t really trust their offense. Kennedy Chandler is very talented, but he’s still only a freshman and an undersized one at that. Do I trust Santiago Vescovi or Josiah Jordan-James to get a bucket down the stretch? Not the way I do players on other contending teams. Vols can make a run, but it’d be a real stretch to get me to believe they can win it all.

Texas Longhorns:

I didn’t view them as a contender anyway, but with the recent news that their best big man Tre Mitchell has left the program, I believe in them even less, to the point where it was a reach to even put them in this tier. The core of guards in Timmy Allen, Marcus Carr, and the program veterans Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones can carry them to the second weekend, but this isn’t the title contender many people viewed them as in the preseason.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:

I can basically copy and paste my analysis of Tennessee and put it here. I said Tennessee had the second best defensive rating in the top 20, Tech has the first best. They can hamper the good offenses, I’m not sure they can stop the great offenses. And if they get into a game with one of those great offenses, are Terrance Shannon or Bryson Williams trading buckets in an Elite 8/Final 4 game? I have my doubts. A great season for Tech, especially to get the season sweep over Texas, but I don’t see it ending with cut nets.

UCONN Huskies:

When people think of UCONN in March Madness, Kemba Walker is probably the first thing you think of. Slightly down the list from that is Shabazz Napier. If you’re trying to shoehorn RJ Cole into that role, I think you’re mistaken. He’s not those guys. However, UCONN can make quite a bit of noise with the combination of Cole, Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. And if they want to even make the second weekend, those three will have to step up big time, because the roster is bleak after them. We’ve learned to never count out the Huskies, but I don’t see this team going all the way.

Villanova Wildcats:

This team just doesn’t have the offensive firepower of the 2016-2018 Nova teams, and it’s showed in their games against good teams. They scored a humiliating 36 points against Baylor, they couldn’t match baskets with Purdue, whose defensive struggles we’ve already highlighted, and most recently lost to UCONN because they couldn’t score a single point in their last three possessions. This is a good team, but it doesn’t hold a candle to the great teams in Jay Wright’s tenure.

Wisconsin Badgers:

I really want to believe in the Badgers because their such a good story, but I just can’t get there and my reasoning is how reliant they are on Johnny Davis for offense. For Wisconsin to win the national title they would be a Kemba Walker-esque stretch from Davis. And while he’s had games of that caliber, he hasn’t strung those performances together the way you’d want. At one point this year he had a 4 point game on 2-13 shooting sandwiched between two games of 22 and 25 points. He had 30 and 25 back to back in wins over Indiana and Michigan, but that was on the heels of just 11 points in a loss to Rutgers. As good as Davis has been, he needs his great games to come more consistently for the Badgers to achieve the ultimate goal.